Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 1.252106e-01 0.153850 0.185036 0.221225 0.261778 0.305551 0.356100
2025-03-30 8.449390e-02 0.121162 0.164864 0.219560 0.284998 0.359679 0.450256
2025-04-06 5.802532e-02 0.097899 0.149903 0.219666 0.307941 0.413323 0.546050
2025-04-13 4.153653e-02 0.082790 0.141508 0.225326 0.336516 0.474141 0.652611
2025-04-20 3.037609e-02 0.071870 0.136164 0.233234 0.367314 0.538278 0.765202
2025-04-27 2.195645e-02 0.062468 0.130877 0.239771 0.395746 0.599837 0.876125
2025-05-04 1.452176e-02 0.051826 0.121343 0.238415 0.412414 0.645955 0.968165
2025-05-11 1.005465e-02 0.045090 0.116660 0.243224 0.437183 0.702902 1.075038
2025-05-18 6.172176e-03 0.037320 0.108340 0.240932 0.450864 0.744642 1.162388
2025-05-25 2.914976e-03 0.028077 0.094735 0.227899 0.447074 0.761393 1.216115
2025-06-01 1.622202e-03 0.023947 0.090478 0.230015 0.465873 0.809704 1.312778
2025-06-08 6.322477e-04 0.018841 0.082448 0.224156 0.471399 0.838757 1.383262
2025-06-15 3.545664e-04 0.017621 0.083814 0.236221 0.506611 0.912333 1.517689
2025-06-22 9.037053e-05 0.014486 0.079138 0.236042 0.521706 0.956816 1.612521
2025-06-29 8.754623e-06 0.012002 0.075359 0.237074 0.538611 1.004168 1.712035
2025-07-06 5.028644e-09 0.010578 0.074341 0.243576 0.564841 1.065851 1.832602
2025-07-13 NaN 0.009579 0.074389 0.252229 0.594907 1.133724 1.962727
2025-07-20 NaN 0.008515 0.073783 0.259308 0.622349 1.198006 2.088475
2025-07-27 NaN 0.006781 0.069667 0.257997 0.634786 1.239401 2.181773
2025-08-03 NaN 0.005851 0.068449 0.263131 0.658745 1.298826 2.301683
2025-08-10 NaN 0.004500 0.064300 0.260757 0.668843 1.336721 2.390659
2025-08-17 NaN 0.002770 0.056071 0.247046 0.657159 1.339873 2.428617
2025-08-24 NaN 0.002192 0.054227 0.249290 0.675226 1.390243 2.536360